CO129-344 - Public Offices & Foreign Office - 1907 — Page 243

[This Document is the Property of His Britannic Majesty's Government.?

AFFAIRS OF CHINA.

CONFIDENTIAL.

242

21013

Rece

Prď 13 JUN 07 [April 30.]

SECTION 1,

[13976]

Sir,

No. 1.

Messrs. Brunner, Mond, and Co. to Sir Edward Grey.~(Received April 30.)

Head Office, Northwich, April 29, 1907. AT the request of our Chairman, Sir John Brunner, wo beg leave to inclose you herewith extracts from letters from our General Manager in China, Mr. E. S. Little, of Shanghae, on the political situation in that country, which we have no doubt will be of interest to you.

Yours, &c.

For Brunner, Mond, and Co. (Limited),

(Signed)

THOMAS H. FORGAN,

Managing Director.

Inclosure in No. 1.

Extracts from Letters from Messrs. Brunner, Mond, and Co., Shanghae, China.

January 22, 1907.

DR. TIMOTHY RICHARD informed a meeting of the Directors of the Diffusion Society, of which Mr. Hobson, Commissioner of Customs, is Chairman, and at which ĩ was present, that the Provincial Treasurer of Shansi had informed him of a very serious plot being hatched in Peking. He had also received information from another high official, who stated that he could not return to Peking, as it was too dangerous for him to be there, and that the reactionaries were plotting some fearful outbreak similar to or worse than the Boxer disturbance of 1900.

Bearing in mind what I have already stated as to the extreme difficulty of forecasting the future in a country like China, I am still of opinion that Dr. Richard's views are extremist and alarmist. I recognize the fact that great changes are going on in this country, that there are strong anti-dynastic movements afoot, and that the Government seeks in every way possible to curtail the rights of foreigners and to deprive them of all privileges.

The Central Government is very much alarmed at the activity of revolutionary bands all along the Yang-tsze. North of the famine district also there is a turbulent section in revolt against the Government, and information arrived to-day shows that the missionaries are in considerable danger, owing to an outbreak of the people against the student class and the foreign model schools established by the Government. The people say that the foreign model schools run entirely by the Government are owing to the work of the missionaries, and in their attack on the Government schools they include also the missionaries. Tang Shao-yi informed me when I was in Peking that the Government was quite strong enough to hold all these and similar movements in check. Since that date, however, this statesman is in disgrace.

I do not consider that any revolution has a ghost of a chance of being successful unless headed by the very highest mandarins with trained troops and sufficient financial resources in support. There is no such person in view along the political horizon. Sporadic outbreaks will occur in this huge Empire; and while there are symptoms of unrest, I do not think that the Government will be at all likely to sanction any such outbreak as that which occurred in 1900. All these disturbances, however, militate against trade. There is a feeling of unrest abroad throughout the Empire, but I believe that progress is being made along certain lines all the time.

I regret to say that I do not see any sign of improvement in official and governing circles. The Chinese mandarin is the same to-day as he was fifty years ago. They know now very much more about foreigners and western methods, and have persuaded themselves, as I heard one of the leading return students state, that whatever a foreign man can do a Chinaman can do. Filled with this notion, they blunder into new and untrodden paths, and frequently come to grief. Many of their

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